Former President Donald Trump's momentum is surging this July 4th, with new polls showing him leading President Joe Biden in multiple metrics and gaining significant traction post-debate, challenging Biden's path to reelection.
Former President Donald Trump’s momentum is peaking this July 4th, reaching the highest point of the 2024 election cycle, according to several independent surveys.
Even before President Joe Biden’s lackluster performance in last week’s debate, many polls indicated Trump leading Biden across various metrics: national surveys, swing state surveys, and key issue surveys.
Post-debate polls now suggest that Trump has gained even more traction.
Despite these findings, the Biden campaign disputes the data, circulating an internal poll recently that shows Biden’s position in the race as unchanged, though there is skepticism about the accuracy of Biden’s internal polling.
According to Nate Silver’s election model forecast from June 30, following the first presidential debate, Trump now leads Biden by six points in the probability of winning the popular vote in November. The last Republican to win the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004 with 50.73 percent.
Silver’s June 30 forecast is the first time it has predicted Trump would win the popular vote against Biden. One day before the debate, Trump was behind by two points according to the forecast.
More importantly, the probability that Trump will win the electoral college stands at 68.4 percent, while Biden’s chances of reelection are at 31 percent.
Here are the top five post-debate polls supporting Silver’s analysis:
1. Suffolk University poll: Forty-one percent of Democratic voters want President Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 race, while 51 percent want him to remain on the ticket.
2. YouGov poll: Seventy-two percent of voters believe Biden lacks the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, with an equal percentage wanting him to drop out of the race.
3. New York Times/Siena poll: Trump leads Biden by 6 points, marking a three-point swing from the previous week and the largest recorded lead since 2015 in Times polling.
4. Wall Street Journal poll: Trump leads Biden by 6 points, the largest lead he has ever held in a Journal survey.
5. Leaked internal Open Labs poll: Biden’s vote share in a two-way race declined by 0.8 percentage points, and his vote share against Trump in a multi-way race also declined by 0.8 percentage points, the largest single-week drop since tracking began in late 2021.
Honorable Mention: A CNN poll shows Trump leading Biden 49 percent to 43 percent.
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