This election's surprise story might be about who "isn't" voting. With GOP early voting up and key Democratic turnout lagging, the stakes are high for Election Day.
In the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election, early voting patterns are sparking optimism among Republicans and raising concerns for Democrats. While early voting has historically been a Democratic stronghold, new records set by Republican early voters have shifted the dynamics, leaving many Republicans bullish on Donald Trump’s chances. The story this election may not only be about who’s showing up, but also about who isn’t.
For the first time in modern history, Republicans have matched or exceeded early voting numbers in several key states, upending conventional wisdom. In NBC News’ latest national poll, Trump held a 16-point lead among those who plan to vote in person on Election Day, despite the poll showing a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. For Republican voters, this surge in early voting, paired with their Election Day edge, offers an encouraging outlook — but what’s really energizing the GOP is the drop in turnout among certain Democratic-leaning demographics.
In Georgia, early voting soared by 42% over previous records, with Republicans performing particularly well. Yet, African American turnout — a crucial bloc for Democrats — was down 7% compared to 2020. In North Carolina, the news is more striking: African American turnout plummeted by 22%, even as Republicans posted a strong early voting showing.
Pennsylvania, a perennial battleground, reflects similar trends. While Democrats had previously dominated early voting in the state, 2024 saw a significant shift. In 2020, more than 1.7 million Democrats cast early ballots; this year, fewer than a million did so. With Biden’s narrow 80,000-vote win in 2020, the state’s 700,000-vote shortfall in early Democratic ballots suggests an uphill climb for Harris, who now faces the daunting task of motivating massive same-day turnout.
As Election Day unfolds, Democrats will need an extraordinary turnout to counter these early deficits. If not, the impact of non-voters could reshape the narrative of this race, potentially tilting it in favor of the GOP.
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